November 1, 2018

The Eternal Season - Sedge's 2018 Hawkeye Football Game Notes, Week 10: Iowa @ Purdue

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2018 Edition
Iowa’s Record: 6-2, 3-2 Big Ten, 1-1 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
AP: 19th (323 votes)
Coaches: 18th (356 votes)
College Football Playoff: 16th
*Times Eastern

September 1st, Northern Illinois, WIN 33-7
September 8th, Iowa State, WIN 13-3
September 15th, Northern Iowa, WIN 38-14
September 22nd, •Wisconsin, Loss 28-17
October 6th, @ •Minnesota, WIN 48-31
October 13th, @ Indiana, WIN 42-16
October 20th, Maryland, WIN 23-0
October 27th, @ Penn State, Loss 30-24
November 3rd, @ •Purdue, 3:30 pm, ESPN2
November 10th, •Northwestern, TBD
November 17th, @ •Illinois, TBD
November 23rd (Friday), •Nebraska, 12:00 pm, FOX

•Big Ten West Division Game

December 1st, 2018
2018 Big Ten Title Game
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis  

Scouting next opponent
Mildcat Bye Week

*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
 November 3rd, @ Purdue Boilermakers, 4-4, 3-2 Big 10, 2-1 B1G West
Previous Meetings: 88, Purdue leads 47-38-3
Last Meeting: 2017, Boilermakers 24 Hawkeyes 15

Kinnick Color of the Week: Road game, wear Hawkeye Colors

Current Line: Iowa +2.5

Stanley Passing TD Count (record 27) 16

Turnover Margin: +3,  B1G #5 FBS #37

Interceptions: 10, B1G #3, FBS #17

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2018 season to date
Total   391.4 Pass 229.8  Rush 161.6  Scoring 29.8
B1G    #8            #9                #9                #7
FBS    #79     #72              #79              #62
Total   264.9  Pass 180.5 Rush 84.4     Scoring 16.1
B1G    #2             #2              #2                  #2
FBS    #4             #18            #4                  #11
Northwestern   5-3, 5-1 B1G, 3-0 B1G West
Wisconsin   5-3, 3-2 B1G, 3-1 B1G West
Purdue               4-4, 3-2 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Iowa                           6-2, 3-2 B1G, 1-1 B1G West
Minnesota     4-4, 1-4 B1G, 0-2 B1G West
Illinois               3-4, 1-3 B1G, 0-2 B1G West
Nebraska               2-6, 1-4 B1G, 1-3 B1G West
WEEK 9: Nittany Lions

Well, that was certainly a very disappointing loss, one that had the Iowa offense played just a bit better, we would have won.

In light of what was on the line (the Badgers had lost to the Mildcats before Iowa kicked off, had we won, the lead in the Big Ten West), that was the worse game of Nate’s career.  He was just 18 out of 49, for 205 yards, with no TDs, and 2 critical interceptions.  The second one, with just over 3 minutes left, Iowa with a 1st and goal at the PSU 3 yard line, Nate tried to change the play, but with the PSU student section at that end of the field, its seemed the outer Iowa players did not hear him.  Kirk was running onto the field trying to call time out, but the officials missed it, Nate snapped the ball, and quickly floated it to the left side of the line, but Fant did not turn around, and the pass fell into the arms of PSU defender.  Iowa would get the ball back with under a minute left, but could not even get a Hail Mary off at the end of the game.  

There was one passing TD in the game, but that belonged to the punter Rastetter, who floated a pass to Brinks, #90, a defensive end that had lined up eligible, and who made a very Willy Mays type catch for the 10 yard TD (fake field goal).  That would be the only offensive TD the Hawks would get that day.  So just one more, and Iowa wins the game 31-30.

The Hawkeye defense played well enough to win, forcing PSU into 2 safeties after stuffing them deep into their territory (both on punts that the punter could not handle).  And Iowa got a pick-six in the 4th when Stone took at pass back 24 yards at the 10:00 minute mark, to bring Iowa back to trailing just 27-24.  Iowa would outgain PSU 350 to 312, even at 2 turnovers, and would lead the TOP 35:18 to just 24:42.  

Of course some of this could be called on the coaching, with a 1st and goal from the 3, why is Iowa spreading out the field for a pass, when Sargent was averaging 5.7 yards a carry for the day?  At least try to run it on 1st down, we can pass to the tight ends on 2nd and 3rd if need be.

And yes, the defense did let McSorely score on that 51 yard run, and this after he had been knocked out of the game.  That was the 1 big play that PSU got on the day, and of course, that TD loomed large in the final score.

Sargent would lead Iowa in rushing, 16 carries for 91 yards, with a long of 16.  Young 7 for 18, and IKM 5 for just 14.  It would seem that Sargent should start the game this week, although he is not 1st on the depth chart.  

Catching those 19 passes Hockenson 3 for 63, Fant 5 for 56, but no TDs for either, Smith 4 for 42, Easley 4 for 25, and Sargent, Brinks, and ISM all 1 catch each.  Of course, Hockenson should have had a TD - with Iowa facing a 3rd and 1 at the PSU 45, Iowa ran play action, and PSU sold out to stop the run - leaving Hockenson 20 yards behind every PSU defender, and Nate overshot him.  That TD would have been the difference.  At 7-1 and 4-1 in the Big Ten, Iowa would have had the lead in the West.

So the Hawks returned home to look at the tape, and figure out where they can improve, as the schedule again returns to the B1G West, 4 straight to finish off the season.  If the Hawks can win out, they are  (on paper) not dead yet for the Big Ten Title Game, but would need some help.  And look who it is to start this November stretch run - Our Rival.

Week 10: Boilermakers

As you can tell by their record, Purdue has been both way up, and way down on the season.  Let’s take a look at the games to date.

Purdue opened the season with at B1G game, hosting the Mildcats.  Welcome to the new era, with B1G games during the non-con season.

This was a close game throughout, 14 all after one period, but then the MIldcats jumped out to a 31-17 lead at halftime.  Purdue would be able to close the deficit to 31-27 with a field goal at the 14:56 mark of the 4th, but the Mildcats would control the ball the final 7:57, preventing Purdue from getting a final shot at the win.  Mildcats 31, Purdue 27.  

Of note, 3, Purdue turnovers, none for the Mildcats.

In week 2, Purdue hosted Eastern Michigan.  This was another close game, as Purdue would score a TD with 6:51 left to build a 19-17 lead.  But former Hawk QB Weigers would get his team in position for a 24 yard field goal, and their freshman kicked nailed it (as time expired), to send Purdue to their 2nd straight loss, 20-19.

A week later, Purdue hosted the Missouri Paper Tigers.  This was another close game, 27-24 Missouri at half, and 37-27 Tigers at the end of 3.

But Purdue would get a TD pass 12:16 to trim the margin, and then a field goal at 3:28 to tie the game at 37.

But the Paper Tigers would move down the field, and for the second straight week, Purdue would lose to a last second field goal, this time from 25 yards out, as Our Rival fell to 0-3.  And all at home.

But, they were at home again, as BC came to town for the final non-con game, in week 4.

A game tied at 7 after 1, Purdue would score 16 in the 2nd and 7 more in the 3rd to build a 30-7 lead over the 23rd ranked Eagles.  BC would get 6 points in the 4th, but that would not be enough, and Our Rival had their 1st win of the season, 30-13.

Then on the road, where Purdue had little trouble with the Huskers, 42-28, sending Nebraska to 0-4 on the season, and their 8th consecutive loss.

Then at Illinois, Our Rival 46, our longer term Rival 7.  Yes we do enjoy seeing Illinois get trounced.  

And then, Our Rival pulled an Iowa.  That is, played a poor host to tOSU.  When it was over, Purdue had racked up 539 yards, and they just pulled away from Ohio State, 49-20.  Purdue had now won 4 in a row and was feeling pretty good about themselves.

But then last week, Purdue had to visit East Lansing, and that defense is considerably better (not up to Iowa tho).

Our Rival would toss in 3 turnovers, not that Sparty really needed them, as they just kind of pounded Purdue into a 23-13 loss.  So that leaves them at 4-4, with Iowa coming to town, looking to atone for last weeks loss, and last seasons loss to Our Rival.

There was a little QB controversy when the season started, but by the 2nd week it had been settled. They are lead by senior Blough, #11.  To date, 182 for 279 (65.2%) for 2350 yards, with 13 TDs, 5 interceptions, and he has been sacked 13 times.  At 6’1 and 205, he is really mean to sling it, but he has run a bit, the most yards 38 against the Huskers.  But if he is doing much running Saturday, it will be for his life.

The top tailback is Knox, #1, a senior. At 5’7 210, that is kind of bowling ball like.  To date,  110 carries for 719 yards, with 8 TDs.  He also has 15 catches for 103 yards, with a long of 26.

Then senior Jones, #8.  He is 5’11 210, so a more traditional tailback body.  To date, 57 for 306, with 2 TDs, and 8 catches for 49 yards.  But Knox will be the feature back the Iowa will look to take away.

The top wideout is the top by quite a margin, but he is only 5’9 175 - freshman Moore, #4.  To date, 68 catches for 802 yards, and 7 TDs.  He has also rushed for 11 times for 163 yards, with a long of 76, and 1 TD, so the Hawks are going to have to watch for him on motion and potential jet sweeps.

Then senior Zico, #7.  He is 6’1, 200.  To date, 24 for 495, and 3 TDs.

Their top tight end is Hopkins, #89, a junior. He is 6’5, 245.  To date,  26 for 469 and 2 TDs.  But the Iowa defense knows about going up against good tight ends.

So let’s take a look at the stats, to see what they can tell us, now that the calendar has moved into November.

They have given up 188 1st downs on defense, with is 12th and 101st.

They are -2 on turnovers, 10th and 82nd.  

And total defense, 432.3  12th, and 97th.  Hello long Iowa drives.  

Passing offense, 330.0.  2nd, and 10th.  The Iowa D line will need to be disruptive, and the secondary must be ready to snag any errant passes, and take down guys immediately if the passes are completed.

I know the Hawks are pissed that they lost a game last week they would have won had the offense just played a little better.  And not at all happy that we lost to Our Rival in Kinnick last year.  The calendar has now hit November, and often, Iowa teams that may have a stumble in the previous month, go on to demolish the slate in the final month.  Win out, 10-2, and let the chips fall where they may.  It begins Saturday, and the Hawks will be ready.

Iowa does rack up over 500 overall, as we pound the rushing attack to 205 and Nate atones for his off week with 325 in the air, and play action will be effective once the Iowa rushing game finds the gear.  And while Blough is pretty accurate, he has not had a D line in front of him like Iowa will bring, and they get 5 sacks, and force 4 Purdue turnovers.  Hawkeyes 48, Purdue 21.

Go Hawks!!!

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