October 25, 2018

The Eternal Season - Sedge's 2018 Hawkeye Football Game Notes, Week 9: Iowa @ Penn State

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2018 Edition
Iowa’s Record: 6-1, 3-1 Big Ten, 1-1 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
AP: 18th (489 votes)
Coaches: 18th (447 votes)
College Football Playoff:
*Times Eastern

September 1st, Northern Illinois, WIN 33-7
September 8th, Iowa State, WIN 13-3
September 15th, Northern Iowa, WIN 38-14
September 22nd, •Wisconsin, Loss 28-17
October 6th, @ •Minnesota, WIN 48-31
October 13th, @ Indiana, WIN 42-16
October 20th, Maryland, WIN 23-0
October 27th, @ Penn State, 3:30 pm, ESPN
November 3rd, @ •Purdue, 3:30 pm, TBD
November 10th, •Northwestern, TBD
November 17th, @ •Illinois, TBD
November 23rd (Friday), •Nebraska, 12:00 pm, FOX

•Big Ten West Division Game

December 1st, 2018
2018 Big Ten Title Game
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis  

Scouting next opponent
Our Rival @ Michigan State, 12:00 pm, ESPN

*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
 October 27th, @ #17 Penn State Nittany Lions, 5-2, 2-2 B1G 10, 1-2 B1G East
Previous Meetings: 27, Penn State leads 15-12
Last Meeting: 2017, Lions 21 Hawkeyes 19

Kinnick Color of the Week: Road game, wear Hawkeye Colors

Current Line: Iowa +4.5

Stanley Passing TD Count (record 27) 16

Turnover Margin: +3,  B1G #5 FBS #37

Interceptions: 9, B1G #3, FBS #15

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2018 season to date
Total   397.3 Pass 231.9  Rush 165.4  Scoring 30.6
B1G    #8            #8                #9                #6
FBS    #75     #68              #75              #66
Total   258.1  Pass 178.6 Rush 79.6     Scoring 14.1
B1G    #2             #3              #1                  #1
FBS    #3             #18            #2                  #5
Wisconsin   5-2, 3-1 B1G, 3-0 B1G West
Northwestern   4-3, 4-1 B1G, 2-0 B1G West
Purdue             4-3, 3-1 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Iowa                         6-1, 3-1 B1G, 1-1 B1G West
Minnesota     3-4, 0-4 B1G, 0-2 B1G West
Illinois             3-4, 1-3 B1G, 0-2 B1G West
Nebraska             1-6, 1-4 B1G, 1-3 B1G West
WEEK 8: Terrapins

Well, when we wrote that the Iowa defense was going to make things hard on Maryland, even we did not think it would be that bad!  Or good!

When the starting defense departed about midway through the 4th, the Maryland offense had just 90 net yards - total.  They would end the game with 115 total yards, a total shutdown by the Iowa defense.  

Hooker would snag the one interception that Iowa would get on the day, and Nelson (Anthony) was the recipient of the gift TD for the Iowa defense, when Maryland botched the handoff deep in their own territory, only to see their QB kick the ball into the end zone as he was hit, which allowed Nelson to fall on it, and that TD pretty much let everyone know the game was over.

And yes, Iowa did get to 224 on the ground, in the form of IKM 24 for 98, Sargent 10 for 54, and Young 9 for 21.  Backup QB Mansell got in and ran for 17 yards himself, ISM 16 yards on a jet sweep, and lets not forget the 13 yards Stanley ran for, 11 of those on a 3rd and 10 QB draw that he was able to fall down across the yellow line, giving Iowa an unlikely 1st down.  

And all the running was good, as Iowa (and Maryland) were having much trouble passing the ball in the sustained 25 MPH wins, with gusts up into the mid 40s.  Nate only 11 for 22 for 86 yards, with one pick (his first pass, over the middle, a bad pass into heavy traffic) and 1 TD, the lovely float to Smith, who caught the ball in the end zone with one hand, and fell to the ground, his 1st Hawkeye touchdown.  It was reviewed, and upheld, but even if incomplete, there would have been pass interference in the end zone, as Smith’s left arm was being held by the Terp corner.  

Of note, Receinos, who booted 3 field goals in 3 attempts on a blustery day.  And Rastetter just had two punts, but they averaged 46.5 yards per kick, and that will work any day of the week.

So on a rather lousy Iowa October day when the Iowa passing attack was not up to snuff, the Iowa defense, running game, and special teams picked up the slack, and it was another rather low stress 4th quarter, as Iowa was even able to punt in the 3rd string QB (Petras) for the final series.

Which brings us to the last cross division game of the season - he we come again, Penn State!

Week 9: Nittany Lions

In the first decade of this century, the Hawks took 8 of 9 games from the Lions.  Among those, the 26-23 double OT win in 2000, the 1st Big Ten road win for Kirk, the 6-4 game in 2004, played the first Saturday after the death of Kirk’s Dad, and then on 09, the 21-10 win, in the rain, when Penn State forgot to block a man named Clayborn early in the 4th.  But the Hawks have lost the last 4 against the Lions, including of course, on the final play last year.

When the season started, the Lions were figured to be a playoff contender out of the East.  But life after Barkley has not gone as smooth as PSU fans had hoped.  And at 1-2 in their own east division, they are pretty much dead on arrival for the B1G title game.  

Let’s take a look at the season to see how they got to this point.

The Lions started out hosting Appalachian State, on the very same day 11 years prior, when App State stunned Michigan in the Big House.

A 10-10 game at half, things got very interesting in the final 30.  PSU built up a 31-17 lead early in the 4th, but back came App State to tie it at 31, and then with just 1:47 left, App State took at 38-31 lead on the Lions, and PSU fans began to have that feeling felt by Michigan 11 year prior.

But McSorley lead PSU on a quick scoring drive that tied the game with 42 seconds left, and it went to OT. 

The Lions would score at TD in the extra session, and then pick off an App State pass to seal the win, 45-38.  Penn State had survived.

In week 2, PSU traveled west to face Pitt, and this was no problem for the Big 10 team, winning 51-6.

And then Kent State, and a PSU win, 63-10.

They then opened the Big Ten slate on the road, facing Illinois.  This was a close game thru 3 quarters, with PSU leading 38-24, but then PSU remembered who they were, and who Illinois was, and reeled off 35 4th quarter points to down the Illini 63-24.  PSU was 4-0 and ranked 9th.

But then in week 2, Ohio State ventured into Happy Valley.

PSU would build at 13-0 lead, and then late in the 2nd, they lost of fumble just outside of their own 20, and the Buckeyes would get a TD on the ensuing possession to trail 13-7 at half.

OSU would lead 14-13 after the 3rd quarter, then things got pretty exciting in the 4th.  

PSU would score TDs at the 12:02 and 8:00 marks of the 4th to build a 26-14 lead - but after that 2nd TD, the two point conversion failed.

The OSU would get TDs at the 6:42 and 2:03 mark, they missing the 2 point conversion after the 2nd TD, to lead it 27-26.

PSU would get the ball inside the OSU 47 yard line, but with the clock winding down and facing a 4th and 5, they tried a read/option, and the OSU defense blew up both men in the backfield, and OSU had beaten PSU 27-26.  Oh for that 2 point conversion.

A week later, Sparty came to Happy Valley.  This a bit more of a sleeper, until the final minute, when MSU would score with 19 seconds left to take a 21-17 lead.  PSU would try a Hail Mary as time expired, but the ball did not even make it inside the 5 yard line, and it was knocked away by the Spartan defense, and PSU had a two game conference losing streak.

Then last week, Penn State headed out on the road to face Indiana.  This a bit more of a game than PSU probably would have liked.  Indiana had a 14-7 lead after 1, and the game would be 17-14 PSU at halftime.

At the end of 3, 26-21 Penn State, and then PSU got a TD early in the 4th to make it 33-21.  Indiana would get a TD with 49 seconds left to make it 33-28, and the Hoosiers would get the ball back after a successful onside kick.  But they could get no further than midfield as the clock expired, and the left PSU with the 33-28 win.

There was some thought among the talking heads that PSU had been looking ahead in that one, with Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin all looming in the next 3 games. But they escaped, and now they are right there into the teeth of their remaining schedule.

Ok so we know McSorley is back at QB, now a senior, to date, 111 for 206, (just 53.9%) for 1461 yards, with 11 tds, 3 interceptions, and he has been sacked 12 times.  But with Barkley no longer there, McSorely is running the ball much more this season.  He has rushed for 554 yards on the season, as high as 175 against OSU, but only 37 in the loss to MSU.  So the Hawks are going to have to keep a spy in him, likely one of the linebackers, and be ready to drill him if he wanders down the field.

The bulk of the post-Barkley running game is handled by 1 tailback, Sanders, #24, a junior, who is 5’11 215, who has 119 carries for 772 yards, and 8 TDs.  He also has 15 catches for 122 yards.

And then it is actually McSorley who has the 2nd most carries, with 98 for that 554 yards.

The player with the most catches is actually a freshman, Hamler, #1, who is 5’9, 173 - a little dude.
He has 22 catches for 401 and 5 TDs.

And then wideout Johnson, #24, a junior. He has 21 for 293 and 1 TD.

Their top tightened is a freshman, Freiermuth (I’d like to buy a vowel), who is 6’5 and 260. He has 12 catches for 153, and 3 TDs.  So this not a team where they are not used to tight ends, but it remains to be seen if they have a chance of covering ours.  I doubt it.

And once again this week, the PSU offense has not yet seen a defense like Iowa has, and that includes losses to MSU and OSU.  Hello Lion offense.

All right, so what do the stats tell us, as October slides into the month of November?

Well that completion percentage is 11th and the Big Ten and 101st overall.  There will be chances to snag some of those passes.  The Hawks must take advantage of those opportunities when they arise.

At 392.0 in total defense, that is 9th and 71st.  Hello balanced Iowa offense.  

Time of possession,  27:50, that is 12th and 103rd.  Iowa did hit 40 minuets last week, hello long Iowa running drives wearing down the PSU defense.

They are pretty good at sacking the QB, so the Iowa O line is going to have to play well, but of course a strong running game will help with that.  

Kickoff return defense, 20:85, 9th and 69th, hello again Iowa return team, how bout a take back this week!

And finally, rushing defense, 165.1, 10th, and 74th. Iowa got over the 200 yard mark last week. If we can do it again, Iowa will be in great shape.

And then, the forecasted weather for Saturday in Happy Valley.  Of course, the Weather, could change.

But at the moment it is looking rather mid 40ish with rain and a chance of some snow.  Ah yes, the sort of midwest in fall.

Iowa has lost the last 4 games to Penn State after out right owning them for a decade.  Time to get that swagger back, and hey Penn State, Iowa is bringing the defense.

In a sloppy day, Iowa does again get to over 200 on the ground, and that lets Nate settle in and find his targets.  Iowa passes the 500 yard mark on the PSU defense while the Iowa D holds the tailback to half his usual number, and holds the running QB to just 20 net,  as they sack him 4 times and pick off 3 of those often wayward passes.  Hawkeyes 34, Penn State 17.        


No comments:

Post a Comment