November 2, 2017

The Eternal Season - Sedge's 2017 Hawkeye Football Game Notes, Week 10: Ohio State @ Iowa

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2017 Edition
Iowa’s Record: 5-3, 2-3 Big Ten, 2-1 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
AP: 0 votes
Coaches: 1 votes
College Football Playoff:
*Times Eastern

September 2nd, v. Wyoming, WIN 24-3
September 9th, @ Iowa State, WIN 44-41 OT
September 16th, v. North Texas, WIN 31-14
September 23rd, v. Penn State, Loss 21-19
September 30th,  @ Michigan State, Loss 17-10
October 7th, v. •Illinois, WIN 45-16
October 15th, Bye Week
October 21st, @ •Northwestern, Loss 17-10 OT
October 28th, v. •Minnesota, WIN 17-10
November 4th, v. Ohio State, 3:30 pm, ESPN
November 11th, @ •Wisconsin, 3:30 pm, ABC/ESPN
November 18th, v. •Purdue, TBD
November 24th, @ •Nebraska, 4:00 pm, FS1 Black Friday

•Big Ten West Division Game

December 2nd, Big Ten Championship Game
Lucas Oil Arena, Indianapolis  

Scouting next opponent
November 4th, Wisconsin @ Indiana, 12:00 pm, ABC

*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
November 4h, 2017: Iowa v. #6 Ohio State Buckeyes, 7-1, 5-0 Big Ten, 4-0 B1G East
Previous Meetings: 64, Ohio State leads 47-14-3
Last Meeting: 2013, Hawkeyes 24, Buckeyes 34

Kinnick Color of the Week:

Current Line: Iowa +15.5

Turnover Margin: -2,  B1G #8 FBS #80

Interceptions: 9, B1G #3, FBS #30

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2017 Through Week 9
Total   345.9  Pass 215.1  Rush 130.8  Scoring 25.0
B1G    #10           #8                #10                 #10
FBS    #103     #78              #99                 #88
Total   368.8  Pass 223.4 Rush 145.4     Scoring 17.4
B1G    #8             #11              #8                 #3
FBS    #46            #69             #46               #12
Wisconsin   8-0, 5-0 B1G, 4-0 B1G West
Nebraska             4-4, 3-2 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Northwestern   5-3, 3-2 B1G, 1-1 B1G West
Iowa                         5-3, 2-3 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Minnesota     4-4, 1-4 B1G, 1-2 B1G West
Purdue             3-5, 1-4 B1G, 1-2 B1G West
Illinois             2-6, 0-5 B1G, 0-4 B1G West
WEEK 9: Golden Rodents

Welcome home Floyd!  Two trophy games up, two trophy games won.  Just wish this one had been by more points.  Shut up the Rodents for another year.

Let’s lead off with the Iowa defense this week.  Another game where they played well enough to win, and win we did.  They held Rodent QB Croft (who did play the whole game) to just 9 of 29 throws, for 129 yards, and the 1 interception.  By my count, Josh Jackson had 5 pass breakups himself, along with 3 tackles, to be the star of the defensive unit.  

The Rodents did get to 142 on the ground, but it clearly was not enough to help their passing attack.

So really, in every game except the ISU game (who, by the way, is now 6-2, and ranked #14 in the AP Poll this week - reminder, they lost to us), the Iowa defense has done enough each week to give the Hawks the victory.  In the 3 losses, you can’t put any of them on the defense.

Nate, 15 for 27, 190 yards, with 1 td (the bomb to Fant, perfect), and 1 interception (the bobble by IS-M, that was NOT picked off by the Rodent defender).  In what was one of two seemingly blown plays by the replay booth, the Rodent defender had to use the ground to gain control of that ball, and that by definition is incomplete.

The other, the fumble by Butler - where his forward progress had been clearly stopped, where the Rodents defenders were holding him up, as he was trying to go down, so that one of them could strip the ball away from him.  Ferentz the Younger had some very not nice things to say to the replay official after the game, Kirk was not happy with that, and probably had some penance for the Younger to perform this week.  But happy to see the fire from at least one Iowa coach when the officials are blowing such obvious calls.

Wadley, 16 for 70, and the 1 td, when the Hawks went down the field in just 5 plays to score on the opening possession for the 1st time this season.  This week did seem to have plays getting him into more space.  Let’s do that again this week boys.  On both accounts.  Please.    

Butler, 11 for 28, running with that brace on his elbow, probably a factor in him losing that ball.

IS-M, 1 for 17, on an end around.

And Nate, 3 rushes for 15 - that game had him taking off when the plays broke down more that he had all season.  At his size he is not easy to take down, so I hope we see more of that going forward.  Another wrinkle from the offense.

 The Hawks did punt 9 times in this game, Gersonde 5 for 176, and Rastetter 4 for 163.  So it seems there is still an open competition between them.  And Recinos good on the 32 yard field goal and both extra points.  Know he felt bad about the missed field goal in the Mildcat game, hope he stays the course the rest of the year.  

So Floyd stays in Iowa City for roughly 365 more days, and the Hawks have put October behind them.  Which could lead to an intriguing November.

WEEK 10: Ohio State

Because is is not uncommon for Kirk teams to have a stumble or two in September and October, then put it all together in November and run the table.

Clearly, that will be a bit of a challenge, with the first game in November.

Ah Buckeyes.  You lucked out by missing Iowa in 2002, we would have beaten that team by 4 touchdowns and knocked them out of the BCS title game.

Then in 2009, with Stanzi injured the week before, and our young QB making his first start at the Horseshoe, where Iowa got the ball back with about 75 seconds left (the game tied), and then sat on it, playing for OT, where we lost.  So that would make the series 46-16-3.  Still ugly.

But, of late, the Hawks had made regular habit of knocking off top 5 teams that come into Kinnick.  Or coming very very close, in the case of PSU.  OSU is #6 this week, the first playoff pool.  

And this past week, Ohio State trailed the same PSU nearly the entire game, only to score 2 touchdowns in the final 5 minutes, to stun the Lions 39-38.

So the Hawks get them coming off this high, almost certainly looking past Iowa, to the other big matchups looming in November.

Stranger Things (season 2 now available) have happened.

That win vaulted the Buckeyes into the #3 spot on the AP poll - inside the top four, aka playoff space.  So they probably figure they have to win big, besides just win out.  Thankfully, the Iowa defense may have something to say about that.

So let’s take a look at the Buckeye season to date.

They opened the season at Indiana - with the new tv contracts, expect to see Big Ten games earlier in the season.  A lot of the talking heads thought Indiana might make a game of this one.  And at the half, the Hoosiers did lead Ohio State 14-13.  But then the OSU offense found another groove, and they went on to win 45-21. 

A week later, they hosted Oklahoma.  This was a rather snoozing first half, tied at 3 at halftime.  The Sooners pulled ahead 17-13 at the end of the 3rd, and then pulled away in the 4th to down Ohio State 31-16. OSU had been ranked 2nd going into that game.

Then ranked 8th, they took on Army, and had little trouble, 38-7.

They actually fell back to 10th that week, and hosted UNLV.  This was not an 80s hoops game, OSU won 54-21.

Then 11th, they visited Rutgers. Buckeyes 56 - Knights 0. 

Now back at 10th, Maryland came in, thinking they could make it a game, but the Terps learned the hard way, falling 62-14.

Now back to 9th, they went to face the Huskers in Lincoln.  

Ohio State scored on their first 8 possessions, en route to a 56-14 pasting of Nebraska.  Your scribe wondered on Twitter which was worse, 40-10 to Iowa, or 56-14 to OSU.

Last week, #6, as Penn State came to visit.  

The Lions lead 14-3 after 1, and then 21-3 4 minutes into the 2nd, but the 2nd would end with PSU leading 28-17.

The 3rd ended with PSU of 35-20, and you figured that was it for OSU.  But OSU got a td 4 minutes in to make it 35-27, PSU responded with a field goal to make it 38-27, then of course the two late tds, one with 4:20 left, one with 1:48 left, gave OSU a 39-38 lead.  PSU could only manage being sacked, then 3 straight incomplete passes, and OSU held on to win by that score.  

The Buckeyes are lead by now senior QB Barrett, #16.  He is 171 for 246, for 2,166 yards, with 25 tds, and just 1 interception.  He has been sacked 12 times.  Of course he can run the ball too, 454 yards and 5 rushing tds.

The top running back is actually a freshman, #2, Dobbins.  He is 5’10, 208.  He has 113 carries for 863 yards, and 5 tds.  He also has 8 catches for 64 yards.  

The top wideout is junior Campbell, #21.  He has 29 catches for 410 yards, 2 tds.  Also 51 rushing yards and 1 td that way.  

Sophomore wideout Hill,  #14, actually has 40 catches for 373, and 3 tds.  

As we look at the stats, is there anything found that can give the Hawks some hope for Saturday afternoon?

The Buckeyes are dead last in the B1G, and 120th in the country, in penalty yards per game - 75.00.  So the Hawks may be able to count on some charity from Ohio State.  This week, we will take it.

And that, my readers, appears to be about the only stat where Iowa can find an advantage over Ohio State.

So, is there any way the Hawks can win this game?

Of course!  But how?

Well, for one, we must be at least +2, more like +3, in the turnover battle.  And we must score on each and every possession we get via Ohio State turnover.  

And Brian and his crew must call a very creative game plan, using mis direction, quick passes, and play action, to allow Nate to take deep shots at least 5 times, while completing at least 3 of those 50 yard plus passes.

The defense must simply take most of the Ohio State running game away.  Their QB is not likely to throw picks, but if he has to throw, Jackson and the crew will have a chance to snag a few of them.  The defense must keep Ohio State ‘behind the chains.’

And of course, while Iowa could use at least 2 very quick strike scores, they also need to be able to sustain some drives, to allow the Iowa defense to rest.  

The Hawks may need smoke and mirrors, but if they can be there with 15 minutes left, anything can happen (right about the same time the sun goes down and the lights of Kinnick take effect).

And Kinnick under the lights, where top teams often face a house of horrors, on the week that wraps up Halloween…

The Hawks are there as the 4th quarter begins, and there, the Hawkeye defense scores to bring the Hawks close, and Nate takes another step into Iowa lore as he leads Iowa to a final drive of 75 yards that beats OSU 31-30.  Strange things, indeed.  



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