January 1, 2017

The Eternal Season - Sedge's 2016 Hawkeye Football Game Notes, the 2017 Outback Bowl, Iowa v Florida

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2016 Edition
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa’s Record: 8-4, 6-3 Big Ten, 4-2 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
AP: #21 (272 votes)
Coaches: #25 (97 votes)
College Football Playoff:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 IOWA FOOTBALL SCHEDULE*
*Times Eastern

September 3rd, v. Miami (Ohio), WIN 45-21
September 10th, v. Iowa State, WIN 42-3
September 17th, v. North Dakota State, Loss 23-21
September 24th, @ Rutgers, WIN 14-7
October 1st, v. •Northwestern, Loss 38-31
October 8th, @ Minnesota, WIN 14-7
October 15th, @ •Purdue, WIN 49-35
October 22nd, v. •Wisconsin, Loss 17-9
October 29th, Bye Week
November 5th, @ Penn State, Loss 41-13
November 12th, v. Michigan, WIN 14-13
November 19th, @ •Illinois, WIN 28-0
November 25th, v. •Nebraska, WIN 40-10

•Big Ten West Division Game

2017 OUTBACK BOWL - IOWA V FLORIDA, THE RUBBER MATCH
JANUARY 2ND, 2017, 1:00 PM, ABC


Scouting next opponent: 
See you in September 2017!


*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January 2nd, 2016, Iowa v. Florida Gators, 8-4, 6-2 SEC East
Previous Meetings: 3 Florida leads 2-1
Last Meeting: 2006 Outback Bowl, Hawks 24 Gators 31

Kinnick Color of the Week:

Current Line: Iowa +3

Turnover Margin: +7,  B1G #4, FBS #20

Interceptions: 7, B1G #12, FBS #102

Current Week 2 Deep:

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2016 Final
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offense
Total   333.3  Pass 161.2  Rush 171.9  Scoring 26.8
B1G    #12           #13               #8                    #6
FBS    #120    #114             #69                  #76
Defense  
Total   352.8  Pass 199.7 Rush 153.2    Scoring 17.9
B1G    #7               #6              #8                    #4
FBS    #24             #27            #48                  #9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Game Watch For NYC

‘The Best Game Watch Outside Of Kinnick’

Playwright Irish Pub  

27 West 35th Street, between 5th and 6th Avenues

Call 212 268-8868 for table reservations.

Remember, we encourage you to use mass transit or cabs to get to our
game watches! We want you back next week!
————————————————————————————————
B1G WEST STANDINGS, Final
Wisconsin   10–3, 7-2 B1G, 6-0 B1G West
Iowa                         8-4, 6-3 B1G, 4-2 B1G West
Nebraska             9-3, 6-2 B1G, 4-2 B1G West
Minnesota     8-4, 6-3 B1G, 4-2 B1G West
Northwestern   6-6, 5-4 B1G, 3-3 B1G West
Illinois             3-9, 2-7 B1G, 0-6 B1G West
Purdue             3-9, 1-8 B1G, 1-5 B1G West
————————————————————————————————————————————
 Week 13: Nebraska

So, are we a rival now, Nebraska?  See you again, in your place, on Black Friday 2017.  Yes, bringing our defense along.  

2017 Outback Bowl

Slip into the way back machine with me, to visit January 1st, 2004, when Iowa and Florida met in the 2004 Outback Bowl, just our 2nd all time meeting with the Gators:


And there was much celebration.  In fact, the Gator bar in NYC was just around the corner from the Iowa bar.  At the final whistle, several of us carried two Hawkeye flags around that corner, and into the Gator bar.  

We were not warmly received, but at least, I did get the number of a cute Florida girl.  She was not a real football fan, and thought I seemed brave for walking into that bar.  Maybe.  Might have been the beers.  I digress. 

And then, just two years later, the Hawks and Gators met again in the Outback (that, one year after Tate to Halloway, when there was much celebration).  This time, however:


Try as I may, I could not find a complete recording of this game on youtube.  Though I suspect above suffices.  Simply, a college football game that was called by officials who had a financial incentive to see one team win.  That is how you get to what happened above.

And Hawk fans have been clamoring for a rubber match (sure, we are down 2-1 all time, but an Outback Bowl rubber match) ever since 2006.  

As late as kickoff on Black Friday, it did not seem like the Hawks could hope to head to the Outback.   But after once again embarrassing Nebraska (man, I am going to miss Tommy throwing the ball to Iowa defenders), there was some movement on the bowl front.  A possible Stanford rematch looked on the table. Then, a possible matchup with Washington State (who shares the bar with the New York Metro Iowa Club, the bar owners were salivating at that possibility).  But then word came out that the Iowa athletic department was lobbying for the Outback, and word came soon after the title games ended. In a season that most Iowa fans would probably label as ‘disappointing’ when taken as a whole, the Hawks still find a way to land in New Year’s Day game (or a day later, in this case).  Meanwhile, over in Ames…

The stars had aligned, Florida has been smacked by Bama in the SEC title game (two years in a row), and that had them falling to the Outback.  Where the Hawks and Gators can settle the score from 2004 and 2006.  

Before we dive into the 2016 Florida schedule and stats, the conventional wisdom.

That this game could give the Iowa 6 - Penn State 4 game a run for its money.  Two much better than average defenses, two bottom 20 overall offenses.  (having been in Happy Valley for the 6-4 game, I think it unlikely to ever see a game like that again).  

That the Hawks are +3 for what is essentially a home game for Florida and a road game for Iowa tells you that Vegas doesn’t really have an idea, either.  

So, who are these Gators, the team we think we may know, but in fact, it’s now been a decade since the officiating debacle in the 2nd Act.  First, a look at their 2016 season.

In week 1, the Gators opened at #25 in the rankings, when they hosed UMass.  This game was just 10-7 Florida at halftime, but they pulled away to win 24-7.  Gator fans probably wanted to bigger win that this one.  

A week later, right into the SEC conference, as the Gators faced Kentucky, sadly for UK, not on the hardwood.  And so Florida made it 30 straight wins in the series, 45-7.

Now ranked #23, the Gators were home to face North Texas (The Mean Green).  This was another easy day with the Gators winning 32-0, however, they lost their sophomore starting QB Del Rio, #14, to a knee injury.  

In week 4, back into the SEC, as the Gators went on the road to then #14 ranked Tennessee.  At QB, senior Austin Appleby - yup, that same guy who was the on again, off again QB for Our Rival.  A graduate last year, he was able to transfer and play right away.  

The Gators would lead this 7-0 after 1 quarter, on a 3 yard pass from Appleby.  At the end of the 1st half, it would be 21-3 Gators.

But then in the 3rd, the Vols would score two TDs, to make the score 21-17 entering the 4th.

There, at the 12:45 mark, the Vols scored on a 67 yard TD, and just under a minute later, at 11:48, another TD, this one a 42 yard pass after a Gator turnover. and Tennessee had a 31-21 lead.  They would push the lead to 38-21 before the Gatos got a 10 yard pass from Appleby at 4:17 mark.  But that would be all the Gators could do, falling to the Vols 38-28.  Tennessee was just 2 yards short of 500 on the Florida defense.

Now back to 23rd in the rankings, the Gators took on Vanderbilt.  The Commodores would actually outgain the Gators, 265 to 236, with 21 1st downs to the Gators 15.  But, 3 Vanderbilt turnovers were the difference, as the Gators escaped, 13-6.  

Up next for Florida, a visit from LSU - but then Hurricane Matthew approached Florida, and the game was postponed.  There was some question if it would ever be played, but in fact, they would get the game in later in the season. 

So now a week later, the Gators took on Missouri, who did indeed find their slave loving brethren when they joined the SEC.

Here, Florida had a 6-0 at 5:45 of the 1st, on 53 and 24 yard field goals.  But then, they had a 39 pick six at the 3:25 mark, and then another, a 78 yard pick six at the 1:14 mark, and the 1st ended Gators 20 Tigers 0.

After Missouri got a 1 yard run early in the 2nd, Del Rio (he returned for this game) had a 20 yard passing TD (2 point failed), and the Gators would lead at the half 26-7.

No one would score in the 3rd, and the Gators would get 2 in the 4th to the Tigers 1, and that made the final 40-14.  

Now ranked 14th, it was time for the world’s largest Cocktail Party.  Georgia/Florida.  

This was the game where Florida’s defense finally lived up to their potential, holding the Bulldogs to just 164 net yards and 8 1st downs in winning 24-10.  Upside to losing the Cocktail Party - lots of liquor to numb the pain.  

Now 11th, the Gators visited the team whose coach has an Iowa Tiger Hawk tattoo on his leg - Arkansas, who had not beat Florida since 1982.

But that Gator defense would allow the Razorbacks 223 rushing yards and 466 total, as Arkansas had a rather comfortable 31-10 win.  This, the 3rd time in 4 weeks the Gator offense had not topped 250 net yards.  

Next up, South Carolina, and Appleby was back in there, as Del Rio had tweaked the knee injury the week before.  He would be 17 for 21 for 201 yards, and yes, Florida did top 250, with 171 rushing, as they would built a 20-0 lead through 3, and end the game 20-7.  

Now the game against LSU would arrive, but this time, a road game for the Gators.  They were ranked #23 at the time.  

And, this was a defensive slugfest, which came down to a 4th and goal from the 1 yard line, with the Tigers trailing the Gators 16-10, with just seconds left:


That win sealed the SEC East for the Gators, as they then went out of conference for the instate battle with Florida State.  

Davin Cook of FSU had a 17 yard run, the Seminoles would lead 7-0 after 1.

It would end 10-3 FSU at the half.

17-6 FSU after 3, and then some fireworks in the 4th, but FSU pulled away to a 31-13 win. Their 4th consecutive over the Gators, which must not make Gator Nation very happy.  At all.  

Appleby was 19 for 35 for 149 yards, as Florida would only get 207 net in this one.  

Now ranked 15th, and they got to play Alabama for the SEC title!

This game was 16-9 Tide after the 1st.  The Gator fans had to be thinking, we are right there.  

But at the half, 33-16 tide.  Maybe not quite there.  End 3, 40-16.

And because it’s Bama, two more 4th quarter TDs, final 54-16.

Florida offense, 262 net, Appleby 26 for 39 for 261, and 2 TDs, but 3 picks, as the Bama defense gave the Gators 30 carries for 0, that’s Zero, rushing yards.  That left the Gators at 8-4, and set up the showdown with the Hawks.

Now let’s take a look at the Florida stats, to see how they compare to Iowa.

Total Defense, #6 FBS, 298,6 yards per game.

Passing defense, #3, 156.3 yards per game.

Rushing defense, #35, 142.3 yards per game.  

Scoring defense, 17.9. #9

Obviously, in a couple of those games, the defense had their problems, as the Hawkeye defense did in a couple.

Total offense, 345.1 - #116 FBS.  

Passing Offense, 215.3, #82.

Rushing Offense, 129.8, #113.

Scoring Offense, 23.4, #109

Turnover margin, +1.  (13 Florida passes intercepted, 7 fumbles lost).

So, it’s clear already, the Iowa defensive game plan, make Florida one dimensional by taking away the running game, and then pick off some of those errant passes.

It does not seem like we will know which QB we will see Monday, maybe both.  Del Rio, #14, the sophomore, is 114 for 201, for 1358 yards,  8 TDs, but also 8 interceptions.  He missed 7 of the games due to his injury.  

And then, Appleby, #12, the senior.  He is 113 for 184, for 1225 yards, with 8 TDs, and 5 interceptions.  He is not a runner, and neither is Del Rio, by modern mobile QB standards.  The Hawks can focus on taking away the tailbacks.  

First is sophomore Scarlett, #25.  He has 165 carries for 795 yards, with 6 rushing TDs.  He has caught 4 passes for 23 yards.  

Then there is freshman Perine, #22.  He has 84 carries for 402, and 1 TD.  And another freshman, Thompson, #24, has 66 carries for 295 yards, and 2 rushing TDs.  Whoever does get that ball out of the backfield, the Hawks must pursue and gang tackle. Bama shut it down, now let’s see the Hawks do it. 

When Florida does complete a pass, first on the list is wideout sophomore Callaway, #81.  47 catches for 666 yards, and 3 TDs.  Against Florida State he had 1 carry for 24 yards. Against Bama, 2 for -2.

Then Powell, a junior wideout, #4, with 43 catches for 372 yards, and 2 TDs.  He had 2 carries for 14 yards in the win over Missouri.  

And the top tight end threat is Goolsby, #30, a junior. He has 35 catches for 315 yards, and 2 TDs.  Obviously the Iowa defense is used to going against pass catching tight ends in practice, perhaps it’s passes here that they can pick off.  

Here is in interesting stat - net punting, 40.95, #10 overall.  But punt return defense, 9.46 - #92 overall.  That tells me sometimes the punter out kicks the coverage, and maybe King can bring one of these all the way back.  He is also #1 in the B1G and #12 overall with his 27.2 kickoff return yard average.  Maybe two all the way back???

Jr is at 1,013 yards on the season, and Wadley is at 966.  Of course Iowa is going to try to get the running game going, clearly Florida did have some trouble defending the run in a few games.  Wadley should get the yards to have two Hawks over 1,000 for the year, which would be a very positive sign for his senior campaign that will begin this fall.  

C.J. has one more game to play, and I think he going to give us his all to impress the NFL scouts that will be at the game.  That will include some running plays (the Iowa offensive line was the Joe Moore award winner this year, given to the top O line in the country!) when he needs to pull it down, but of course the Iowa O line will be hungry to face a defense that has 5 guys projected to go in the Top 100 of the 2017 NFL draft.  And that means getting the Iowa rushing game going, with the thunder of Jr and lightning of Wadley.  C.J. has had one more month to work on his timing with his young receivers and tight ends, and I think we will see him do well passing if Iowa can get the ground game going.  

And I am sure the Iowa defense, who found another gear in the last 3 games, will continue to play very inspired football.  Look for them to also try and hold Florida under 250 net yards.  

The Gators might be a team to contend with in coming seasons, but this game features a team that has lost 2 straight, and one that has won 3 straight.  Trends.

C.J. throws for 285 in his final game, with TD passes to Fant, Mccarron, and Wadley (a screen).  Wadley goes for 110 and passes the 1K mark, and Jr rumbles his way for 95, as Iowa starts quickly, and that forces Florida to try and throw the ball.  And that is where the Iowa D wants them.  The Iowa defense picks off 3 Gator passes, as the Hawks finally get a bowl win for the seniors of this class, and they win the Outback Bowl Rubber Match.  Hawkeyes 38, Florida 16.

GO HAWKS!!!

SEDGE

DAVE SEDGWICK