November 10, 2016

The Eternal Season - Sedge's 2016 Iowa Football Game Notes, Week 11: Wolverines @ Hawkeyes

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2016 Edition
Iowa’s Record: 5-4, 3-3 Big Ten, 2-2 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
College Football Playoff:
*Times Eastern

September 3rd, v. Miami (Ohio), WIN 45-21
September 10th, v. Iowa State, WIN 42-3
September 17th, v. North Dakota State, Loss 23-21
September 24th, @ Rutgers, WIN 14-7
October 1st, v. •Northwestern, Loss 38-31
October 8th, @ Minnesota, WIN 14-7
October 15th, @ •Purdue, WIN 49-35
October 22nd, v. •Wisconsin, Loss 17-9
October 29th, Bye Week
November 5th, @ Penn State, Loss 41-13
November 12th, v. Michigan, 8:12 pm, ABC
November 19th, @ •Illinois, TBD
November 25th, v. •Nebraska, TBD

•Big Ten West Division Game

December 3rd, Big Ten Title Game, 8:00 pm, FOX

Scouting next opponent: Week 11
Illinois @ Wisconsin, 3:30 pm, ESPN2

*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
November 12th, 2016  Iowa v #3 Michigan Wolverines, 9-0, 6-0 Big Ten, 4-0 B1G East
Previous Meetings: 59, Wolverines lead 41-14-4
Last Meeting: 2013, Wolverines 21 Hawkeyes 24

Kinnick Color of the Week: Blackout

Current Line: Iowa +21.5

Turnover Margin: +6,  B1G #4, FBS #23

Interceptions: 5, B1G #13, FBS #99

Current Week 2 Deep:

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2016
Total   335.4  Pass 182.9  Rush 152.6  Scoring 26.6
B1G    #12           #11               #12                  #8
FBS    #118    #106             #93                  #79
Total   402.2  Pass 225.4  Rush 176.6    Scoring 21.3
B1G    #9               #12              #10               #4
FBS    #62             #62              #72               #24
Minnesota     7-2, 4-2 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Nebraska             7-2, 4-2 B1G, 3-1 B1G West
Wisconsin   7-2, 4-2 B1G, 3-0 B1G West
Iowa                         5-4, 3-3 B1G, 2-2 B1G West
Northwestern   4-5, 3-3 B1G, 1-2 B1G West
Illinois             3-6, 2-4 B1G, 0-3 B1G West
Purdue             3-6, 1-5 B1G, 1-3 B1G West
 Week 10: Lions

Well, that was very disappointing.

Hawkeye defense - 600 yards allowed.  Last time that happened, 2000, Kirk’s 2nd year at the helm.

359 rushing yards allowed.  167 to Barkley.  6.9 per carry overall.  240 passing yards, not terrible, but the average of 21.8 per catch, even King was beat more than once.  

The worst team in the country at converting 3rd downs, Penn State (25%), went 7 for 14 (50%).  Iowa, by comparison, 2 for 10.  

The Iowa offense?  30 net rushing yards.  Wadley 9 for 28, Jr 10 for 18, C.J. lost the rest in sacks.

C.J. passing, 18 for 26 for 204, which would have been all right…if we could have run the ball for something like 200 yards. Alas.

So, the Hawks go from a team with a middle of the road defense that we could do nothing much against, to the number 1 defense in the Big Ten, and nation.  Hello Wolverines.

Week 11: Wolverines

Going back to August, the conventional wisdom was that Michigan was probably a year away, the East would belong to Ohio State.  One of the unknowns, who would succeed the former Iowa quarterback leading the Michigan offense.  

Eventually, Harbaugh would settle on junior QB Speight, #3. He is 6’6, 243 pounds, and has completed 149 of 231 passes, for 2053 yards, with 15 tds, 3 interceptions, and he has been sacked 12 times.  He is really just a pro style QB, the most yards he has run for is 15, in the last game against Maryland.

Their top tailback is Smith, #4, a senior.  He has 564 yards on 109 carries, with 8 rushing tds.  They will also use freshman tailback Evans, #12, who has 57 carries for 456 yards, and 3 tds.  
Michigan will also use the wildcat offense, where junior linebacker Peppers, #5, will take the snap.   Yes, a linebacker.  He has 17 carries for 150 yards and 3 offensive tds.  

Catching those passes from the pro style QB, senior Darboh, #82, who has 42 catches for 741 yards, and 6 tds.  Of note, he is from West Des Moines.  

And yes, senior tight end Butt, #88, is still there.  He has 34 catches for 421 yards, and 4 tds.

Third most catches, senior wideout Chesson, #86.  25 catches for 416 yards, and 2 tds.  We will see if King focuses on Darboh to take away the top receiving threat.  

Looking at Michigan’s results so far, it’s fair to say they are rolling.  The closest anyone has been to them is Wisconsin, that 14-7 Wolverine victory.  Sparty also put up a decent fight, falling 32-23.  Last week, Michigan feasted on Maryland, 59-3.  You may recall Rutgers, who Iowa beat 14-7, Michigan beat 78-0.

That top defense?  Total defense, 243.6.  #1.
Passing yards allowed, 138.9.  #1
Rushing defense, 107.4.  #2 in the Big Ten, #10 overall
They are +9 on turnover margin, 3rd best in the B1G, #9 overall.
Scoring defense, 10.7, #1, all.  

Their offense, being pro style, is able to grind up some long drives, that helps keep their defense fresh, Michigan TOP 33:36, #3 Big Ten, #11 FBS.

One possible weakness - Michigan net punting, 36.04, #8 B1G and #95, and the resulting punt return defense, 8.75, is 9th and 81st.  Maybe King this week?  More than 1 please???

And about that linebacker Peppers, he also returns kicks and punts, and assuming he comes back for his senior year (a big if), he could find himself in the running for a Heisman (kind of in the talk this year, but probably too many good QBs in 2016).  

If you visit any of the various Iowa message boards, you will quickly find some threads concerning by how much the Hawks will lose to Michigan.  Clearly, the way the Hawks have looked of late, and the way Michigan has looked, you can see why the line is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 touchdowns.  

Maybe the Hawks can catch the Wolverines looking ahead to the Ohio State game?  Stranger things have happened. 

But the other reality is that in our current 4 team playoff, teams have to have style points to impress the selection committee.  Can the Hawkeyes do anything about that?

Maybe, for a half, maybe longer.  May be hard to believe, but even with our current record, we are still not eliminated from the Big Ten title game as West champions (yes, we would need some help).

So let’s see what the offense of Greg Davis can do to move the ball against this great defense.  Running on 1st down, 2nd down, to throw on 3rd down, is not the way to do it.  

We are playing to a nationwide audience on ABC, with their top college football crew in the booth.  There are about 60 Iowa recruits (some signed, most not) who will be at this game - if Iowa were to do well, it could sure help some of those kids make their decision.

Come on Hawks, let’s play like we know you can.  How about protecting the home field?
I really don’t know what is going to happen this week, I do think the Hawks can be closer to Michigan than the experts think.  Close enough to be there in the final minutes?  I hope so.  Enjoy the game, and hope the Hawks are able to show that we are not just going to roll over for a Michigan coronation.



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