October 20, 2016

The Eternal Season, Sedge's 2016 Hawkeye Football Game Notes, Week 8: Badgers @ Hawkeyes

Sedge's Hawkeye Football Game Notes - 2016 Edition
Iowa’s Record: 5-2, 3-1 Big Ten, 2-1 B1G West 
Iowa’s Rankings:
AP: 7 votes
Coaches: 4 votes
College Football Playoff:
*Times Eastern

September 3rd, v. Miami (Ohio), WIN 45-21
September 10th, v. Iowa State, WIN 42-3
September 17th, v. North Dakota State, Loss 23-21
September 24th, @ Rutgers, WIN 14-7
October 1st, v. •Northwestern, Loss 38-31
October 8th, @ Minnesota, WIN 14-7
October 15th, @ •Purdue, WIN 49-35
October 22nd, v. •Wisconsin, 12:00 pm, ESPN
October 29th, Bye Week
November 5th, @ Penn State, 7:30 pm, BTN
November 12th, v. Michigan, 8:00 pm, ABC/ESPN2
November 19th, @ •Illinois, TBD
November 25th, v. •Nebraska, TBD

•Big Ten West Division Game

December 3rd, Big Ten Title Game, 8:00 pm, FOX

Scouting next opponent: Week 8
Ohio State @ Penn State, 8:00 pm, ABC

*Wondering which BTN channel we are on? Click, enter, find.
October 22nd, 2016  Iowa v #10 Wisconsin Badgers, 4-2, 1-2 Big Ten, 0-0 B1G West
Previous Meetings: 89, Badgers lead 44-43-2
Last Meeting: 2015, Hawkeyes 10 Badgers 6

Kinnick Color of the Week:

Current Line: Iowa +3

Turnover Margin: +5,  B1G #5, FBS #17

Interceptions: 5, B1G #8, FBS #64

Current Week 2 Deep:

Hawkeye Stat Pack - 2016
Total   364.1  Pass 184.1  Rush 180.0  Scoring 30.9
B1G    #13           #10               #7                    #5
FBS    #102         #101             #59                   #58
Total   370.7  Pass 219.0  Rush 151.7    Scoring 19.1
B1G    #7               #11                  #8                 #5
FBS    #46             #56                #59                #21
Nebraska     6-0, 3-0 B1G, 2-0 B1G West
Iowa                 5-2, 3-1 B1G, 2-1 B1G West
Northwestern   3-3, 2-1 B1G, 1-1 B1G West
Wisconsin   4-2, 1-2 B1G, 0-0 B1G West
Minnesota   4-2, 1-2 B1G, 0-1 B1G West
Purdue     3-4, 1-2 B1G, 1-1 B1G West
Illinois     2-4, 1-2 B1G, 0-2 B1G West
 Week 7: Boilermakers

Now that is the way to take care of an overmatched ‘rival’!  Your scribe had barely finished his first beer when the Hawks had scored 21 points, on a Jr 1 yard run for our first offensive drive, a C.J. 15 yard run on the 2nd, and then after the Hawks forced another quick 3 and out, the C.J. to McCarron 42 yard td strike that came with 9 seconds left in the 1st quarter. 

The Hawks would push the lead to 28-0 when Jr scored from 4 yards out at 3:48 of the 2nd.  Purdue would then a get a 5 play drive that ended up with a 25 yard td strike, after which the kickoff was a touchback.

After the break, Iowa came out with C.J. in the gun, and Wadley to his left. At the snap, Iowa ran a quasi read/option, Wadley got the ball, Fant made a great block on a Boilermaker that was in the backfield, and Wadley took off - he got bumped as he passed through the line, but regained his balance, the Purdue safety was then in front of him, but Wadley cut the ball inside and he was in the clear!  Across the 40, the 50, the 40, two Boilermakers are giving chase, across the 30, the 20, the 10, TOUCHDOWN IOWA!!!  75 yards, and just like that, the Hawks were up 35-7.

After the 3rd quarter, the score was Hawks 42 Purdue 14, and Iowa pulled most of the starters. Yes, the Boilermakers would get 3 tds in the 4th, but they would get greedy on a 3rd down and King finally got his first interception of the season, and for good measure he took it back 41 yards for the pick 6, and that gave the Hawks their final score of 49.  I have a feeling now that he has the first of the season, a few more may soon arrive.  

So the Hawks won, were able to rest some guys late, and beat the line (never bet on your school).

C.J. was a pretty easy 10-17 for 140 yards, but with Wadley going for 176 on just 15 carries, and Jr hitting 150 on 23 carries, C.J. was not asked to do too much in this one.  

Of note on those 10 completed passes, the first Hawkeye touchdown for Fant, on that play that was ruled out of bounds, but in review, he got his left foot down in bounds and the call was overturned.  
We will likely see a bit of more that young Hawkeye, as one of the down points of last week was Kittle injuring himself on a play where a Boilermaker had wrapped up his legs, but Kittle was able to dive ahead for a 1st down.  Sounds like a mild foot sprain, not sure if he will be in or out this week.  

Yes, the 2nd team does need work on pass stopping, but the Hawkeye defense gave Purdue net 47 yards on the ground.  Two good rushing D weeks in a row, maybe the D has turned a corner, and is playing now as we expected to start the season.

Oh, and that win means the Hawks have bested the 1921, 1922, and 1923 Hawkeyes, who won 8 consecutive road games (they only played 7 total in those days). A school record 9 straight away from Kinnick, the 3rd best run in the nation at the moment. 

The Hawks started quickly, scored at will, and gave many starters extra rest.  We dispatched our ‘rival’, and can focus on the best rivalry in Division 1.  Hello Badgers. 

Week 8: Badgers

The Badgers opened the season up north at Lambeau Field, when then-ranked #5 LSU paid a visit.

This was pretty much a slug fest that had the Badgers up 6-0 at halftime, they would lead 13-0 early in the 3rd, but then at the 5:28 mark of the 3rd, the Tigers picked off a Badger pass and went pick 6, from 21 yards out, to get on the board at 13-7.  About 90 seconds later they would score again, this time a 10 yard pass, to lead 14-13.  And Lambeau grew quiet.

But at the 3:47 mark of the 4th, the Badgers hit a 47 yard field goal, to lead 16-14, and they would end the game by picking off the Tigers on their final drive to seal the win.  

LSU is down to #25 at the moment, and of course, they are no longer with the coach that started the season.  

In week 2, the Akron Zips paid a visit to Camp Randall, and the Badgers beat them 54-10.

A week later, Georgia State came calling, and this was a scary one for the Badgers.  In the 2nd half they benched their senior QB for the freshman backup, and he was able to put together three 2nd half drives to give the Badgers a tough 23-17 win. 

Then the Big 10 started.  

Their trip to East Lansing looked scary, but it was the Spartans who were shocked, as the Badgers pounded them 30-6.  Since then, Michigan State has bottomed out.

The Badgers then went to the Big House, and if you like offense, you probably fell asleep for this one.  Neither offense could do much, the Wolverines got a 1 yard run for a td on the 1st play of the 2nd quarter, and that 7-0 score is how the 1st half would end.

At the midpoint of the 3rd, the Badgers tied the game up on a 17 yard pass, and 7-7 is how the 3rd quarter would end.  

Then at 7:56 of the 4th, Michigan completed a 46 yard pass for a td, and had the 14-7 lead.

And that is how the game would end.  The Michigan defense forced 3 turnovers and only gave the Badgers 159 total yards.

The Badgers then had their bye week to recover.  

Last week, the Badgers played host to the Buckeyes under the lights.

(yes, they started the Big Ten by playing all 3 of their cross division games in a row)

This game was more entertaining, at least in the 2nd half.  At halftime, the Badgers had a 16-6 lead.
But the Buckeyes would charge back in the 2nd half, and the game would end up tied at 23.  To overtime they went.  OSU would score on a 7 yard pass to make it 30-23, so the Badgers had to match.

The Badgers would get to the Ohio State 4 after 2 plays for a 1st and goal.

1st down, a Clement run, stuffed, 2nd and goal.  

2nd down, a pass that was too high.  3rd and goal

Another handoff to Clement, the Buckeyes again stuff it for no gain.  4th and goal from the 4.

The Buckeyes call timeout after they see the Badger formation.  

After the break, Ohio State brings a blitz that the freshman QB can’t account for, and they drill him for an 11 yard loss, and that ended the game OSU 30 Badgers 23.  

If scoring at home, that is a 2 game losing streak, to the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in the AP poll this week.  Hence the Badgers only fell from 8th to 10th in the poll.  

So the Badgers have looked to the future, the freshman QB is Hornibrook, he is 6’4, 219.  He did not play in the LSU game, just mop up duty the 2nd game, and has just started since the Spartan game.  
In his 3 starts, he has attempted 79 passes, completing 34 of them, for 497 yards, with 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.  He is a pocket passer, all his running has been in the negative each game.  He is also a lefty, which is pretty uncommon for quarterbacks.  Yes, the ball does spin the opposite way when he tosses it.  But it’s just the spin on a football, not at all like the spin of a lefty pitcher that throws off batters.  If he targets King, look out.  

Of course, the Badgers are still going to try and pound the ball down your throats via the running game.  That starts with Clement, now a senior, with 107 carries for 483 yards, and 5 rushing tds. 

We will also see another senior tailback Ogunbowale, who has 51 carries for 208 yards, and 1 td.

The top wideout is junior Peavy, who has 21 catches for 357 and 3 tds.  2nd is senior Wheelwright, with 20 catches for 310 yards.  

Their top tight end is also a junior, Fumagalli, he is 6’6 and 248.  He has 23 catches for 265 yards.

Per usual, this game features two pro style teams, that look to establish the run, run play action passes, use tight ends, fullbacks, big offensive lines, tough defenses.  This is usually a game befitting the all time record being just a one game difference in the winning column.  

So what do the stats tell us?

Looking at the same stats as above, let’s start with turnovers. 

Badgers turnovers gained, 11, and lost, 11. Net, 0.  That is good for 8th in the conference and 54th overall.  Advantage, Iowa.  

Total offense, 375.2  10th and 95th. More or less a push.
Passing offense, 201.2, 9th and 94th.  Same as above.
Rushing offense, 174.0, 8th and 67th.  
Scoring offense, 25.5, 12th and 90th.  

Total defense, 311.3, 3rd and 12th.  (note, the Badgers are using a 3/4 defense now)
Passing defense, 205.2, 9th and 37th.
Rushing defense, 106.2, 2nd and 13th.
Scoring defense, 15.2, 3rd and 9th.

In summary, the Badger defense has been playing about where we hoped the Iowa defense would be at the start of the season.  The Iowa defense we have seen the past two weeks

And the offense shows that a freshman QB has the reigns.  

So this may be a game where rushing yards are tough to come by for both teams.  Clearly, having our senior QB to try and offset that via passing game should play an advantage over the freshman QB of the Badgers.

And the Iowa D line and linebackers must be ready for motion plays like jet sweeps.  The Badgers will try to get playmakers out to the edge of the field, away from the bulk of the Iowa defense.  The Iowa defense must ‘stay’ home to their assigned area of the field, until the play is certain, then they must swarm to the ball carrier.  

You have probably heard that the last 5 Hawkeye Badger matchups have gone to the visitor.

And that the Hawks are plus 3, the Badgers are #10 in the country, and they just went toe to toe with the Wolverines and the Buckeyes.

The Hawks are probably going to have to try some New Kirk things to keep the Badgers guessing.  Maybe a jet sweep of our own, 4th down calls across the 50, perhaps that fake punt using C.J. as the punter (Coluzzi has the same #16).  

But know this, the Iowa defense seems to have turned a corner, and the Badgers are not a team that can put the ball up if we are shutting down their rushing attack.

The Hawkeye O line and tailbacks also must be looking at this game as a direct challenge, to outrush the Badgers, control the clock, and give C.J. play action time to go down the field.

Sooner or later, the home team has to win this game.  This week, in Kinnick.

Iowa runs for 195, holds the Badgers to 110, and C.J. tosses tds passes of more than 25 yards to McCarron and Smith.  Hawkeyes 24, Badgers 16.



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